(20-06-23) MOGADISHU — On Monday, ahead of a consequential trip to the United Nations (UN), President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia introduced significant changes within the country’s military leadership. A presidential decree appointed Brigadier General Ibrahim Sheikh Muhyiddin and Brigadier General Ahmed Aden Ali as the new commanders of the Somali National Armed Forces and the Infantry, respectively.
This reshuffle comes on the heels of the president declaring the second phase of operations against Al-Shabaab, the Somali-based Islamist insurgent group. During a visit to the recently liberated district of Aadan Yabaal, President Mohamud announced the operation’s focus on eradicating Al-Shabaab from the remaining areas of the country, with specific attention on the Jubbaland and Southwest states, where militants are suspected to have relocated.
In a meeting held at Villa Somalia on Thursday, President Hassan took another significant step towards improving governance and promoting democracy. Committing to the National Consultation Council’s (NCC) proposal to transition to a one-person, one-vote election model, the president engaged in discussions with representatives from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, United Nations, European Union, and African Union. The dialogue centred on the recent outcomes from the NCC, Somalia’s ongoing stabilisation efforts, and the concerted war against terrorism.
This journey to the UN, facilitated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as it assumes the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council (UNSC) for June 2023, is a testament to the UAE’s burgeoning role in Somali security matters. President Hassan will be advocating for the lifting of the long-standing arms embargo on Somalia, a cause his administration has vigorously championed.
However, the situation on the ground has undergone drastic changes over the past year. The government’s actions have led to a state that echoes the civil war era. Al-Shabaab has grown stronger, seizing substantial weaponry from overrun SNA and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) forward operating bases.
The government’s ability to account for its arsenal, the arming of clan militias, and the frequent changes in army leadership, which result in a loss of invaluable experience in counterinsurgency operations, are major sources of concern.
Critics have expressed caution against lifting the arms embargo, pointing to the potential escalation of tribal conflicts, increased violence by terrorist groups, a deepening humanitarian crisis, and an enhancement of government corruption. These critics fear that lifting the embargo might only serve to solidify the president’s hold on power.
Last week, at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) summit, President Hassan recognised the progress made in the region amidst challenging circumstances and hailed Somalia’s achievements in politics, state-building, and counter-terrorism. He called for IGAD’s support in lifting the arms embargo on Somalia and advocated for resilience-based investments to tackle climate change and protect livelihoods.
In November 2022, the UNSC decided to maintain the arms embargo on Somalia, citing Al-Shabaab’s continuing threat to regional peace and stability.
With the UAE’s support of President Hassan’s voyage, the significant shift in Somalia’s military leadership and strategy against Al-Shabaab, coupled with the president’s commitment to the NCC’s proposal, this could be a transformative moment in Somali history. However, it will require decisive action and careful management of the complex geopolitical landscape to ensure lasting peace and stability in the region.
